The way I see it

A penny falls out of a guy’s pocket as he walks down the street in front of me. It rolls and lands at my feet. (If you know me at all, you will know that I compulsively pick up pennies, as long as they are heads-up. I’m sure Jay gets annoyed with this occasionally :-)) But the penny lands tails-side up.

(picture from http://carliland.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/lincoln_pennies.jpg)

So the philosophical question is, is it bad luck since the penny landed at my feet, regardless of whether I pick it up or not? Or is there a deterministic part of luck/chance/fate that allows me to choose whether or not I pick up the penny and assume the path it brings? Hence, the Iocaine Powder Argument: By ignoring the penny, I can logically assume that the luck outcome of the penny does not apply to me. But by ignoring the penny, I will also leave a nagging doubt in my mind that will automatically associate that forgotten penny with an ill-fated event in the near future. No matter which of the two options I follow, there will always be iocaine powder in both paths. Now, to build up a resistance to bad luck over the next 7 years…